Property Deep Dive Analysis

Comprehensive investment analysis powered by real data

Berkeley Luxury Flip
East Palo Alto
Kansas City 24-Unit
Las Vegas 12-Unit
LUXURY HOUSE FLIP

1383 Alvarado Rd, Berkeley, CA

Purchase Price
$1,495,000
ARV
$2,038,000
Size
2,729 sqft
Configuration
4/3.5
Year Built
1987
Location
Claremont Hills
SCORE: 8.5/10 ✅ STRONG BUY

Executive Summary

Cash Needed
$194,350
Total Profit
$175,670
ROI
67.5%
Annualized ROI
162%
Timeline
5 Months
Rehab Budget
$165,000
Prime Location: Claremont Hills is a top 1% Berkeley neighborhood with sweeping views, proximity to Claremont Hotel and UC Berkeley. Strong buyer demand from tech executives and professionals.

Deal Structure

  • Purchase Price$1,495,000
  • Down Payment (10%)$149,500
  • Hard Money Loan$1,510,500
  • Closing Costs$44,850
  • Rehab Budget (100% financed)$165,000
  • Holding Costs (5 months)$65,770
  • Monthly Burn Rate$13,154/month
  • Total Cash to Close$194,350

Rehab Scope ($165,000 @ $60.50/sqft)

Category Details Cost
Kitchen Modernization Updated appliances, counters, finishes $35,000
Bathrooms (3.5) Updates across all baths $25,000
Interior Paint Fresh paint throughout $15,000
Flooring Refresh Update worn areas $20,000
Fixtures & Hardware Modern fixtures throughout $8,000
Landscaping & Curb Appeal Front yard, staging the views $15,000
Exterior Paint/Repairs Refresh exterior $12,000
Staging & Marketing Professional staging, photos $13,000
Contingency (15%) Buffer for surprises $22,000
Total Rehab $165,000
Cosmetic Only: This is a cosmetic-only renovation leveraging the modern 1987 construction. No structural work needed, which reduces risk and timeline.

ARV Validation - $2,038,000

Address Sqft Sale Date Price $/sqft Distance
1098 Siler Pl 3,267 10/08/25 $2,995,000 $917 0.16mi ⭐
2610 Piedmont Ave 2,679 11/13/25 $2,495,000 $931 1.1mi
2905 Piedmont Ave 2,932 09/18/25 $2,750,000 $938 1.1mi
2964 Magnolia St 2,387 11/19/25 $2,395,000 $1,003 1.1mi
Conservative ARV: Your property at 2,729 sqft @ $747/sqft = $2,038,000. This is 18-25% BELOW comparable sales showing $917-1,003/sqft. Built-in safety margin of $200-500k!

Bonus: ADU Income Potential

ADU Configuration
1bed/1bath
Monthly Rental Income
$2,000-2,500
Annual Income
$24k-30k
Alternative Strategy
BRRRR Hold
Backup Strategy: Separate 1bed/1bath ADU with own entrance, parking, and laundry provides optionality. If market softens, you can hold as rental or pursue BRRRR strategy instead of flip.

Alternative: BRRRR Strategy

  • Main House Rent$5,200/month
  • ADU Rent$2,500/month
  • Total Monthly Income$7,700/month
  • Refinance Value (75% LTV)$1,528,500
  • Cash Flow After Refi~$1,500/month
  • Appreciation (4%/year)$81,520/year
  • Long-term WealthOwn $2M+ Berkeley asset

Comparison to Other Flips

Property Cash Needed Profit ROI Timeline
Berkeley $194k $176k 67.5% 5mo
Pennsylvania $75k ✅ $60k 66.2% 3mo ✅
Mountain View $60k ✅ $65k 87.9% ✅✅ 3mo ✅
Key Insight: Berkeley has the HIGHEST absolute profit ($176k) but requires the most capital. Mountain View has best ROI (87.9%), Pennsylvania has least risk. Choose based on your capital and risk tolerance.

Risk Analysis

✅ Strengths

Prime Berkeley Location

Top 1% Claremont Hills neighborhood, recession-resistant

Conservative ARV

$200k-500k safety margin vs comps

Modern Construction

1987 build = lower risk than old Victorians

ADU Income Potential

Backup rental strategy with $2-2.5k/month income

Highest Absolute Profit

$176k profit is best of all flips analyzed

⚠️ Risks

High Capital Requirement

$194k cash needed vs $60-75k for others

Premium Market

$1.495M purchase = large exposure

5-Month Hold

$13k/month burn rate adds up

Market Timing

Bay Area luxury market can shift quickly

Competition

Other flippers active in Berkeley Hills

🏠 STRONG BUY - HIGHEST PROFIT FLIP

Ideal for well-capitalized investors seeking the highest absolute profit ($176k on $194k invested). Prime Berkeley location provides strong downside protection. ADU offers backup rental strategy if market shifts.

View Property on Redfin →
⚠️ HIGH RISK / HIGH REWARD

2719 Xavier St, East Palo Alto, CA

Purchase Price
$1,000,000
Software ARV
$2,877,000
Realistic ARV
$1,850-2,100k
Size
1,710 sqft
Configuration
7bed/4bath
Year Built
1953
SCORE: 7/10 ⚠️ CONDITIONAL - VALIDATE ARV FIRST

🚨 CRITICAL ISSUE: ARV UNCERTAINTY

Software shows $2,877,000 ARV, but East Palo Alto comps average $873/sqft vs Palo Alto/Menlo Park at $2,129/sqft. This deal LIVES OR DIES on accurate ARV validation. DO NOT proceed without local realtor opinion.

The ARV Problem - WILDLY DIVERGENT COMPS

Location Address Beds Sqft Price $/sqft
EAST PALO ALTO COMPS (Same City)
EPA 2238 Lincoln St 4/3 1,523 $1,531k $1,005
EPA 2396 Glen Way 3/1 1,450 $980k $676
EPA 206 Donohoe St 3/3 2,202 $1,925k $874
EPA 640 Circle Dr 3/1 1,430 $1,350k $944
EPA Average $873/sqft
PALO ALTO / MENLO PARK COMPS (Nearby)
Palo Alto 1948 Edgewood Dr 5/3 1,904 $3,175k $1,668
Menlo Park 414 Laurel Ave 4/2 1,700 $3,800k $2,235
Palo Alto 2330 Sierra Ct 5/3 2,065 $3,800k $1,840
Palo Alto 50 Jordan Pl 4/2 1,802 $5,000k $2,775
PA/MP Average $2,129/sqft
The Brutal Truth: There's a $1,256/sqft premium for crossing from East Palo Alto into Palo Alto/Menlo Park. Despite being neighbors, EPA is NOT Palo Alto. Your software ARV of $2,877k assumes Palo Alto pricing ($1,683/sqft) which is NOT achievable in EPA.

Realistic ARV Scenarios

Conservative
$1,625,000

1,710 sqft × $950/sqft

Standard EPA pricing

Moderate
$1,881,000

1,710 sqft × $1,100/sqft

Premium EPA with ADU

Optimistic
$2,223,000

1,710 sqft × $1,300/sqft

Bridge gap to PA/MP

Software (Unrealistic)
$2,877,000

1,710 sqft × $1,683/sqft

PA pricing, not EPA

Deal Analysis at Different ARVs

Cash Needed
$130,000
Rehab Budget
$203,500
Holding (6 months)
$57,658
Hard Money Loan
$1,103,500
ARV Scenario Sale Price Net Proceeds Profit/Loss ROI
Conservative ($1.625M) $1,625,000 $1,551,875 -$739,283 LOSS ❌
Moderate ($1.881M) $1,881,000 $1,796,355 +$505,197 388% ✅
Optimistic ($2.223M) $2,223,000 $2,122,965 +$831,807 640% ✅✅
Software ($2.877M) $2,877,000 $2,747,535 +$1,456,377 1,120% 🤑

⚠️ MY RECOMMENDATION

Realistic ARV: $1,850,000 - $2,100,000

At $1.85M ARV: $476k profit (366% ROI)

At $2.1M ARV: $713k profit (549% ROI)

This assumes the property can command premium EPA pricing due to 7bed/4bath configuration + ADU + EV charger + gentrification trends.

Unique Property Features

✅ What Makes This Special

7 Bedrooms Total

Main house + converted garage + ADU

3 Separate Living Areas

Multiple income streams or multigenerational

ADU with Private Entrance

Rental potential or extended family

EV Charger Installed

Appeals to tech buyers

Corner Lot, Large Yard

4-car driveway, rare for EPA

Gentrification Area

Facebook HQ, Stanford, Google nearby

🚨 Extreme Risks

ARV Uncertainty (CRITICAL)

Could be $1.6M or $2.3M - 40% variance!

Neighborhood Stigma

EPA has crime reputation vs Palo Alto

Complex Configuration

Non-traditional = fewer buyers

Built 1953 (72 Years)

Foundation/electrical/plumbing concerns

Large Capital Exposure

$1M purchase, $9,610/month burn

Offer Strategy

Listing Price: $1,000,000 (on market 18 days)
  • Recommended Offer$1,000,000 (asking)
  • Maximum (if competition)$1,050,000
  • Why Not More?18 days, ARV risk, needs $203k work

DO NOT offer over asking. Property has been listed 18 days (not moving fast). EPA location has stigma vs Palo Alto. Needs $203k renovation. ARV uncertainty requires margin for error. If seller wanted more, they'd price higher.

CRITICAL Due Diligence Required

🚨 Must Complete Before Buying

1. Hire Local EPA Realtor

Get broker price opinion, validate ARV range

2. Thorough Property Inspection

Foundation (1953 concern), electrical capacity

3. Verify All Conversions Legal

Garage conversion and ADU permits critical

🚨 More Requirements

4. Understand Buyer Pool

Who buys 7bed in EPA? Limited buyers = lower price

5. Get Real Comps from Agent

Don't trust software - need actual EPA data

6. Validate Minimum $1.85M ARV

Below this, deal doesn't work

⚠️ CONDITIONAL BUY - VALIDATE ARV FIRST

IF realtor confirms $1.85M+ ARV: Offer $1,000,000 - this is a potential home run with $475k-713k profit.

IF realtor says ARV is $1.6M: PASS - minimal profit doesn't justify $1M exposure and EPA risks.

This deal LIVES OR DIES on accurate ARV validation. Do not proceed without local expert opinion.

View Property on Zillow →
MULTIFAMILY - 24 UNITS

3457 Holmes St, Kansas City, MO

Purchase Price
$2,500,000
Price/Unit
$104,167
True Cap Rate
9.0%
Condition
Renovated 2022
Location
Midtown KC
SCORE: 9/10 ✅ STRONG BUY - EXCELLENT CASH FLOW

Year 1 Performance - EXCEPTIONAL

Cash Needed
$625,000
Annual Cash Flow
$79,167
Monthly Cash Flow
$6,597
CoC Return
11.3%
NOI
$225,102
Expense Ratio
15.6%
🔥 HIGHEST ABSOLUTE CASH FLOW: $79,167/year ($6,597/month) is the best cash flow of all multifamily properties analyzed. 11.3% CoC return is exceptional and grows to 21.3% by Year 10!

Income & Expense Analysis

📈 Income

  • Gross Rent Income$280,800/year
  • Average Rent/Unit$975/month
  • Vacancy (5%)-$14,040
  • Operating Income$266,760

💰 Expenses

  • Property Taxes$8,578
  • Insurance$5,000
  • Maintenance (5%)$14,040
  • CapEx (5%)$14,040
  • Total Expenses$41,658
  • NOI$225,102
Why Expenses Are So Low: Fully renovated in 2022 = minimal maintenance needs. Tenants pay utilities (standard in KC). 24-unit scale provides economies. Property taxes verified at $8,578 (public record). No management fee if self-managed.

Financing Details (75% LTV @ 6.75%)

  • Purchase Price$2,500,000
  • Down Payment (25%)$625,000
  • Loan Amount$1,875,000
  • Interest Rate6.75%
  • Annual Debt Service$145,935
  • Monthly Payment$12,161
  • Year 1 Cash Flow$79,167

5-Year Projection

Year Gross Income NOI Cash Flow CoC Return
Year 1 $280,800 $225,102 $79,167 11.3%
Year 2 $289,224 $231,991 $86,056 12.3%
Year 3 $297,901 $239,089 $93,154 13.3%
Year 5 $316,043 $253,940 $108,005 15.4%
Year 10 $366,380 $295,196 $149,261 21.3%

10-Year Wealth Creation

Cumulative Cash Flow
$1,128,180
Equity Buildup
$795,900
Property Value Year 10
$3,700,611
Total Equity Year 10
$2,101,217
Total Return
236%
Year 10 CoC
21.3%

Property Comparison

Property Cash Needed Y1 Cash Flow Y1 CoC Units Score
Holmes 24 (KC) $625k $79,167 11.3% 24 9/10 ✅
Vallejo 11 $462k ✅ $56,283 12.2% ✅ 11 9.5/10 ✅
Rockridge 9 $472k $36,325 7.7% 9 9/10 ✅
Best For: Holmes 24 if you want highest absolute cash flow ($79k) and 24-unit scale. Vallejo 11 if you want highest CoC% (12.2%) with less capital ($462k). Both are exceptional - choose based on capital and scale preference.

Why This Deal Is Excellent

✅ Strengths

Highest Absolute Cash Flow

$79,167 Year 1, grows to $149k by Year 10

Exceptional CoC Return

11.3% Year 1, reaches 21.3% by Year 10

TRUE 9% Cap Rate

Verified with actual expense data

Fully Renovated 2022

Turnkey, minimal CapEx for years

Prime Midtown KC

B+ location, North Hyde Park area

Low 15.6% Expense Ratio

More profit flows to owner

24-Unit Scale

Economies of scale, diversification

⚠️ Considerations

Higher Capital Required

$625k down vs $462k for Vallejo

Kansas City Market

Slower appreciation than coastal cities

Out-of-State Management

Need reliable property manager

Market Rent Verification

Validate $975/unit is sustainable

🏠 STRONG BUY - BEST ABSOLUTE CASH FLOW

This 24-unit property delivers $79,167 Year 1 cash flow with 11.3% CoC return, growing to 21.3% by Year 10. Fully renovated 2022, prime Midtown KC location, true 9% cap rate, and exceptional 15.6% expense ratio. Perfect for investors seeking maximum cash flow with scale.

View Property on LoopNet →
BRAND NEW - BUT UNDERPERFORMING

304 S Maryland Pkwy, Las Vegas, NV

Purchase Price
$1,999,999
Price/Unit
$166,667
Cap Rate
6.14%
Year Built
2024
Price Drop
$250,000
Owner Financing
Available
SCORE: 6.5/10 ⚠️ PASS AT ASKING / MAYBE AT $1.75M

⚠️ THE PROBLEM

Despite being brand new construction (2024), this property generates only 0.6% CoC return due to below-market rents. Current rents are 15-25% below market, requiring immediate increases to justify the $2M price. Better deals available.

Current Performance (Proforma Year 12)

Cash Needed (25% down)
$500,000
Annual Cash Flow
$3,132
Monthly Cash Flow
$261
CoC Return
0.6%
NOI
$122,808
Expense Ratio
20.1%

0.6% CoC is unacceptable even for brand new construction. You're essentially breaking even while taking on $2M exposure. Better deals generate 11-12% CoC from Day 1.

Unit Mix & Current Rents vs Market

Unit Type Count Current Rent Market Rent Monthly Upside
Studios 8 $1,045 $1,200-1,400 $155-355 per unit
1-Beds 9 $1,091 $1,300-1,500 $209-409 per unit
2-Beds 1 $1,543 $1,700-1,900 $157-357 per unit
Total 12 $1,100 avg $1,300-1,500 avg $35k-60k/year
The Opportunity: Rents are 15-25% below market. At market rents ($175k-218k gross), NOI would be $154k-174k, cap rate 7.7-8.7%, and cash flow $34k-54k/year (6.8-10.8% CoC). But you need to raise rents immediately.

Deal Analysis at Different Scenarios

Current Rents (Asking $2M)
0.6% CoC

Cash Flow: $3,132/year

PASS ❌

Market Rents ($175k gross)
4.1% CoC

Cash Flow: $20,324/year

MARGINAL ⚠️

Counter at $1,750,000
8.1% CoC

Cash Flow: $35,255/year

ACCEPTABLE ✅

$1.65M w/ Seller Financing
Better Terms

$1M down, 5% carry

WORTH EXPLORING ✅

Comparison to Your Best Deals

Property Price/Unit Y1 Cash Flow Y1 CoC Location Units
Vallejo 11 $150k ✅ $56k 12.2% ✅✅✅ C+ 11
Holmes 24 KC $104k ✅✅ $79k ✅✅ 11.3% ✅✅✅ B+ 24
Rockridge 9 $256k $36k 7.7% ✅ A++ 9
Vegas 12 $167k $3k 0.6% ❌ B+ 12
Vegas ranks LAST despite being brand new construction. Even at market rents, it only hits 4-7% CoC while your other deals generate 11-12% from Day 1.

What Makes It Interesting

✅ Positives

Brand New 2024 Construction

No CapEx for 10+ years, warranty coverage

Below Replacement Cost

$167k/unit vs $200k+ to build new

Downtown Vegas Location

Near Raiders stadium, Arts District

Owner Financing Available

$1M down option, flexible terms

Low 20% Expense Ratio

New building = efficient operations

❌ Deal Breakers

Below-Market Rents (15-25%)

Need immediate rent increases to work

Barely Positive Cash Flow

0.6% CoC is unacceptable for any deal

Vegas Multifamily Oversaturated

Lots of new supply hitting market

Better Deals Available

Vallejo & Holmes crush this on returns

Seller Desperate

$250k price drop signals problems

Offer Strategy

  • Asking Price$1,999,999
  • Recent Price Drop-$250,000
  • Recommended Counter$1,750,000
  • Or Seller Financing Counter$1,650,000
  • Max if CompetitionWALK AWAY

At $1.75M: Down $437k (25%), at market rents generates $35k cash flow (8.1% CoC) - acceptable but not great.

At $1.65M with seller financing: $1M down, negotiate 5% seller carry - better terms than bank could make deal attractive.

Otherwise PASS: Vallejo and Holmes are better investments with immediate strong returns.

❌ PASS AT $2M / MAYBE AT $1.75M

At asking $1,999,999: Pass - 0.6% CoC is unacceptable even for new construction.

Counter at $1,750,000: Makes deal workable at 8.1% CoC with market rents.

Best option: Focus on Vallejo (12.2% CoC) or Holmes KC (11.3% CoC) which deliver superior returns from Day 1.

View Property on LoopNet →